Betting Lines
| Spread | BEL -18.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 162.0 Over |
| Money | BEL -3500 SAM +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BEL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +13 | 179 | Lost |
| Massey | BEL -21.0 (-34.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.9 (+26.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BEL -15.9 (-28.9) | 148.5 (+30.5) | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BEL -17.6 (-30.6) | 149.6 (+29.4) | 80% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 16, 2023 | SAM 99 – 93 BEL |
| Dec 22, 2022 | BEL 79 – 56 SAM |
| Dec 5, 2021 | BEL 85 – 73 SAM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BEL | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-4 | 6-13 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 2-9 |
| Home | 11-1 | 4-5 |
| Away | 10-2 | 2-7 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.3 | 72.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.1 | 79.6 |
| Massey | 7.8 (#37) | -3.8 (#196) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.29 (#16) | -1.69 (#234) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.20 (#22) | -2.06 (#223) |
| RPI | 0.625 (#48) | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BEL | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.8% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 20.8% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.8% | 45.0% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 25.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 18.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 58.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 24.5% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 78.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.2% | 17.2% |
Game Analysis
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