Betting Lines
| Spread | BEL -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | BEL -200 SAM +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BEL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BEL +23 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | BEL -2.0 (+21.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.8 (-21.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BEL -4.0 (+19.0) | 148.6 (-13.6) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BEL -3.9 (+19.1) | 151.0 (-16.0) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BEL -4.0 (+19.0) | 153.2 (-18.2) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BEL -4.1 (+18.9) | 152.1 (-17.1) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 16, 2023 | SAM 99 – 93 BEL |
| Dec 5, 2021 | BEL 85 – 73 SAM |
| Dec 5, 2020 | SAM 96 – 83 BEL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BEL | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 15-3 |
| Home | 12-2 | 13-3 |
| Away | 7-7 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.3 | 77.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 72.2 |
| Massey | -0.7 (#186) | 2.1 (#136) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.29 (#155) | -1.06 (#285) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.08 (#184) | -0.93 (#251) |
| RPI | 0.512 (#159) | 0.432 (#295) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BEL | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 41.2% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 30.1 | 37.6 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.9% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 24.0% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.1% | 30.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 22.5% |
| DRB% | 65.4% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 28.3% |
Game Analysis
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