Betting Lines
| Spread | MD -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.0 Under |
| Money | MD -220 NU +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NU +6 | 128 | Lost |
| Massey | NU -3.3 (-2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.3 (-14.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NU -2.1 (-3.9) | 139.5 (-11.5) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NU -2.6 (-3.4) | 141.7 (-13.7) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NU -3.3 (-2.7) | 142.1 (-14.1) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NU -3.0 (-3.0) | 143.0 (-15.0) | 42% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | NU 78 – 74 MD |
| Mar 8, 2025 | MD 74 – 61 NU |
| Jan 17, 2025 | NU 76 – 74 MD |
| Feb 29, 2024 | NU 68 – 61 MD |
| Jan 18, 2024 | NU 72 – 69 MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MD | NU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 15-16 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 7-13 |
| Home | 10-8 | 10-6 |
| Away | 3-7 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.9 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 70.6 |
| Massey | 1.0 (#154) | 9.9 (#35) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.05 (#184) | 0.78 (#113) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.57 (#142) | 1.41 (#95) |
| RPI | 0.512 (#155) | 0.494 (#191) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MD | NU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 26.8% | 37.9% |
| REB / G | 39.1 | 37.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 2.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.2% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 12.7% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 46.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 76.2% | 78.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.4% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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