Betting Lines
| Spread | FGCU -5.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FGCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FGCU +10 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | FGCU -5.0 (+5.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.1 (+1.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FGCU -3.0 (+7.0) | 142.7 (+3.3) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FGCU -5.2 (+4.8) | 143.7 (+2.3) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FGCU -4.9 (+5.1) | 144.0 (+2.0) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FGCU -4.3 (+5.7) | 143.7 (+2.3) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FGCU | DART |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-2 |
| Massey | -1.7 (#214) | -1.1 (#204) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.77 (#115) | 0.74 (#116) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.52 (#145) | 0.71 (#132) |
| RPI | 0.552 (#97) | 0.554 (#91) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FGCU | DART |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 38.7% |
| 3PT% | 38.9% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 22.3% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 22.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 11.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 67.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 18.2% |
Game Analysis
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