Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -22.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +29 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | VILL -22.7 (+6.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.7 (-9.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -22.1 (+6.9) | 145.5 (-12.5) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -19.4 (+9.6) | 145.6 (-12.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -18.7 (+10.3) | 146.4 (-13.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -22.8 (+6.2) | 144.7 (-11.7) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 12, 2024 | JOES 83 – 76 VILL |
| Nov 29, 2023 | JOES 78 – 65 VILL |
| Dec 17, 2022 | VILL 71 – 64 JOES |
| Dec 20, 2020 | VILL 88 – 68 JOES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VILL | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-8 | 11-19 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 5-13 |
| Home | 12-1 | 9-7 |
| Away | 8-5 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 10-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.7 | 69.1 |
| Massey | 16.4 (#9) | -0.4 (#188) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.39 (#28) | -0.37 (#220) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.06 (#23) | -0.90 (#237) |
| RPI | 0.612 (#37) | 0.493 (#194) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VILL | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 40.9% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 39.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.85 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.5% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 12.1% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 31.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 16.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.6% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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