Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | JOES +140 VILL -165 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JOES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JOES +7 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | JOES -6.4 (+0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.7 (+12.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JOES -4.2 (+2.8) | 140.7 (+18.3) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JOES -2.5 (+4.5) | 142.6 (+16.4) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JOES -2.5 (+4.5) | 141.5 (+17.5) | 57% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JOES -1.0 (+6.0) | 138.9 (+20.1) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 29, 2023 | JOES 78 – 65 VILL |
| Dec 17, 2022 | VILL 71 – 64 JOES |
| Dec 4, 2021 | VILL 81 – 52 JOES |
| Dec 20, 2020 | VILL 88 – 68 JOES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JOES | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 21-15 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 11-9 |
| Home | 13-5 | 14-3 |
| Away | 4-6 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.1 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.6 | 68.2 |
| Massey | -5.2 (#281) | -0.4 (#183) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.07 (#304) | -0.58 (#241) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.37 (#294) | -0.83 (#248) |
| RPI | 0.481 (#197) | 0.449 (#211) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JOES | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 51.1% |
| 3PT% | 28.8% | 38.2% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 58.5% |
| TOV% | 21.3% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 22.4% | 41.6% |
| FT Rate | 30.8% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 78.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.5% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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