Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | JOES +550 VILL -1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JOES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +7 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | VILL -4.3 (-2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.3 (-13.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -3.2 (-3.8) | 143.2 (-8.2) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -3.3 (-3.7) | 146.0 (-11.0) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -4.1 (-2.9) | 147.0 (-12.0) | 35% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -4.9 (-2.1) | 144.5 (-9.5) | 23% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 12, 2024 | JOES 83 – 76 VILL |
| Nov 29, 2023 | JOES 78 – 65 VILL |
| Dec 4, 2021 | VILL 81 – 52 JOES |
| Dec 20, 2020 | VILL 88 – 68 JOES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JOES | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 10-10 |
| Home | 10-6 | 10-4 |
| Away | 4-7 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 67.7 |
| Massey | -5.6 (#273) | 3.8 (#102) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.42 (#293) | 0.09 (#172) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.09 (#304) | 0.45 (#148) |
| RPI | 0.443 (#269) | 0.509 (#159) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JOES | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 7.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 13.7% |
| ORB% | 27.2% | 23.1% |
| FT Rate | 32.4% | 28.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 19.2% |
Game Analysis
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