Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -22.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +20 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | VILL -19.3 (+0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 166.0 (-10.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -16.1 (+3.9) | 155.9 (+0.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -19.5 (+0.5) | 162.0 (-6.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -20.9 (-0.9) | 155.1 (+0.9) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -20.5 (-0.5) | 154.6 (+1.4) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 12, 2024 | JOES 83 – 76 VILL |
| Nov 29, 2023 | JOES 78 – 65 VILL |
| Dec 17, 2022 | VILL 71 – 64 JOES |
| Dec 4, 2021 | VILL 81 – 52 JOES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VILL | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-7 | 5-15 |
| Conference | 11-4 | 3-9 |
| Home | 9-0 | 3-3 |
| Away | 4-4 | 1-9 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 72.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.5 | 82.6 |
| Massey | 12.8 (#26) | -2.1 (#197) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.25 (#11) | -1.46 (#259) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.37 (#17) | -2.28 (#264) |
| RPI | 0.701 (#14) | 0.470 (#187) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VILL | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 40.0% |
| 3PT% | 37.4% | 28.7% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.69 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.5% | 47.1% |
| TOV% | 12.5% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 27.7% | 24.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 53.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 79.3% | 61.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.4% | 37.8% |
Game Analysis
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