Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -12.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.0 Under |
| Money | VILL -1000 JOES +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JOES +13 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | VILL -14.3 (-27.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.2 (+2.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -12.1 (-25.1) | 143.0 (+0.0) | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -12.0 (-25.0) | 141.2 (+1.8) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -11.4 (-24.4) | 141.5 (+1.5) | 83% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -12.4 (-25.4) | 145.4 (-2.4) | 83% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 12, 2024 | JOES 83 – 76 VILL |
| Dec 17, 2022 | VILL 71 – 64 JOES |
| Dec 4, 2021 | VILL 81 – 52 JOES |
| Dec 20, 2020 | VILL 88 – 68 JOES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VILL | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 9-9 |
| Home | 10-6 | 14-3 |
| Away | 4-8 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 75.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.6 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 12.5 (#28) | 4.6 (#107) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.42 (#31) | -0.54 (#230) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.52 (#40) | -0.50 (#209) |
| RPI | 0.695 (#12) | 0.458 (#231) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VILL | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 40.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 33.2% | 15.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.3% | 44.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 74.8% | 74.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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