Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -9.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | ILL -440 RUTG +340 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +35 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -10.1 (+24.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.5 (+2.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -8.6 (+26.4) | 137.4 (-0.4) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -6.1 (+28.9) | 140.8 (-3.8) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -5.8 (+29.2) | 140.2 (-3.2) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -6.4 (+28.6) | 141.4 (-4.4) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 9, 2026 | ILL 81 – 55 RUTG |
| Feb 6, 2025 | RUTG 82 – 73 ILL |
| Jan 21, 2024 | ILL 86 – 63 RUTG |
| Dec 2, 2023 | ILL 76 – 58 RUTG |
| Feb 11, 2023 | ILL 69 – 60 RUTG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | RUTG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 12-8 |
| Home | 13-3 | 14-3 |
| Away | 7-4 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.4 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 66.5 |
| Massey | 5.9 (#79) | 1.7 (#141) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.12 (#92) | -0.71 (#241) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.56 (#95) | -0.57 (#221) |
| RPI | 0.598 (#50) | 0.502 (#175) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | RUTG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 40.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 26.0% |
| REB / G | 41.9 | 40.3 |
| OREB / G | 13.9 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.54 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 44.7% |
| TOV% | 23.3% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 39.6% | 31.8% |
| FT Rate | 26.1% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.4% | 46.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 76.6% | 77.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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