Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -15.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +7 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -10.7 (-3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 170.7 (-23.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -8.7 (-1.7) | 156.2 (-9.2) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -8.5 (-1.5) | 163.1 (-16.1) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -7.3 (-0.3) | 165.8 (-18.8) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -8.6 (-1.6) | 165.1 (-18.1) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | PUR 78 – 57 IOWA |
| Jan 14, 2026 | PUR 79 – 72 IOWA |
| Feb 5, 2025 | PUR 90 – 81 IOWA |
| Jan 20, 2024 | PUR 84 – 70 IOWA |
| Dec 5, 2023 | PUR 87 – 68 IOWA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | IOWA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-8 | 26-10 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 12-8 |
| Home | 16-1 | 15-3 |
| Away | 5-5 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.4 | 83.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.4 | 71.2 |
| Massey | 21.9 (#2) | 17.1 (#7) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.88 (#3) | 3.24 (#10) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.96 (#2) | 4.31 (#18) |
| RPI | 0.632 (#22) | 0.570 (#78) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | IOWA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 54.5% | 50.4% |
| 3PT% | 44.2% | 39.6% |
| REB / G | 42.6 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.59 | 2.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 63.6% | 58.3% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 11.6% |
| ORB% | 41.3% | 36.5% |
| FT Rate | 28.7% | 27.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.4% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 21.7% |
| DRB% | 76.8% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.4% | 12.9% |
Game Analysis
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