Betting Lines
| Spread | AF -1.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AF +18 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | AF -7.5 (+10.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.1 (+8.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AF -7.2 (+10.8) | 131.3 (+2.7) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AF -3.1 (+14.9) | 129.5 (+4.5) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AF -7.9 (+10.1) | 129.5 (+4.5) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AF -7.9 (+10.1) | 131.4 (+2.6) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AF | ARMY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-18 | 15-16 |
| Conference | 4-13 | 9-9 |
| Home | 7-6 | 10-4 |
| Away | 2-11 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 59.0 | 69.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.0 | 72.1 |
| Massey | -2.4 (#226) | -4.0 (#250) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.09 (#94) | -1.66 (#300) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.48 (#149) | -2.83 (#315) |
| RPI | 0.463 (#233) | 0.414 (#296) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AF | ARMY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.7% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 29.5% |
| REB / G | 29.1 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 5.6 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.8% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 23.3% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 21.2% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 17.1% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.9% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.0% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 17.8% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.