Betting Lines
| Spread | TNST -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CHST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CHST +10 | 108 | Won |
| Massey | CHST -7.8 (+2.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.3 (-33.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CHST -4.5 (+5.5) | 135.9 (-27.9) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CHST -5.6 (+4.4) | 140.0 (-32.0) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CHST -6.3 (+3.7) | 139.6 (-31.6) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CHST -6.4 (+3.6) | 142.4 (-34.4) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CHST | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 8-10 |
| Home | 5-9 | 8-5 |
| Away | 2-15 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.1 | 68.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.4 | 70.8 |
| Massey | -8.8 (#320) | -10.7 (#334) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.11 (#263) | -3.21 (#345) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.76 (#274) | -4.67 (#341) |
| RPI | 0.365 (#332) | 0.301 (#353) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CHST | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.2% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 38.2% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.58 | 0.60 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.7% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 26.1% | 24.6% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 14.3% | 20.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.4% | 41.3% |
Game Analysis
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