Betting Lines
| Spread | UNH -15.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNH +22 | 112 | Won |
| Massey | UNH -22.5 (-0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.5 (-23.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNH -14.6 (+7.4) | 135.3 (-23.3) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNH -15.6 (+6.4) | 141.4 (-29.4) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNH -16.8 (+5.2) | 140.1 (-28.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNH -17.1 (+4.9) | 136.3 (-24.3) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNH | CCSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-13 | 8-24 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 5-13 |
| Home | 10-4 | 5-7 |
| Away | 5-9 | 4-15 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.7 | 61.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.8 | 72.1 |
| Massey | 2.7 (#126) | -14.0 (#349) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.29 (#161) | -2.13 (#322) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.10 (#177) | -3.42 (#328) |
| RPI | 0.558 (#90) | 0.388 (#321) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNH | CCSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 37.4% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 30.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 0.66 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 47.3% |
| TOV% | 12.1% | 22.0% |
| ORB% | 24.8% | 26.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.5% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 76.8% | 66.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.3% | 26.8% |
Game Analysis
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