Betting Lines
| Spread | HOW -5.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | HOW -230 AMER +190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOW +34 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | HOW -15.9 (+18.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.7 (-8.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOW -10.3 (+23.7) | 143.9 (+2.1) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOW -11.4 (+22.6) | 150.8 (-4.8) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOW -11.7 (+22.3) | 150.1 (-4.1) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOW -12.3 (+21.7) | 150.1 (-4.1) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOW | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-13 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 9-5 | 5-13 |
| Home | 8-4 | 6-5 |
| Away | 5-8 | 4-16 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.6 | 63.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 70.9 |
| Massey | -1.9 (#220) | -11.9 (#342) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.53 (#289) | -1.79 (#312) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.04 (#283) | -2.61 (#304) |
| RPI | 0.352 (#339) | 0.358 (#335) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOW | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.1% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 39.2% | 30.2% |
| REB / G | 31.2 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.1% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 23.6% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 33.0% | 22.3% |
| FT Rate | 14.8% | 13.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 57.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.3% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 61.6% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.8% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.