Betting Lines
| Spread | PORT -5.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PORT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VMI +8 | 172 | Lost |
| Massey | PORT -11.5 (-19.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.5 (+33.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PORT -5.3 (-13.3) | 146.4 (+25.6) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PORT -9.7 (-17.7) | 139.9 (+32.1) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PORT -9.2 (-17.2) | 139.1 (+32.9) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PORT -9.8 (-17.8) | 140.7 (+31.3) | 80% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PORT | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 7-7 | 9-9 |
| Home | 11-4 | 9-4 |
| Away | 6-9 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.0 | 77.4 |
| Massey | -0.3 (#186) | -5.9 (#274) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.27 (#206) | -1.80 (#313) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.89 (#235) | -2.44 (#298) |
| RPI | 0.434 (#274) | 0.310 (#351) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PORT | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 40.8% |
| 3PT% | 30.1% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 22.1% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 26.1% | 25.3% |
| FT Rate | 30.9% | 18.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.5% | 46.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 65.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.6% | 16.5% |
Game Analysis
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