Betting Lines
| Spread | LAS -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LAS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LAS +19 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | LAS -13.1 (+5.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.2 (+11.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LAS -9.5 (+9.5) | 135.7 (+13.3) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LAS -9.2 (+9.8) | 136.8 (+12.2) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LAS -9.7 (+9.3) | 136.7 (+12.3) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LAS -9.9 (+9.1) | 137.2 (+11.8) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LAS | HC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-19 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 7-11 |
| Home | 8-7 | 5-9 |
| Away | 2-10 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.5 | 63.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 72.0 |
| Massey | -7.7 (#308) | -14.9 (#350) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.17 (#323) | -3.32 (#347) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.85 (#333) | -4.82 (#346) |
| RPI | 0.402 (#308) | 0.297 (#355) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LAS | HC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.4% | 39.5% |
| 3PT% | 30.0% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 39.5 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 13.7 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.42 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.4% | 44.4% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 23.1% |
| ORB% | 31.8% | 31.3% |
| FT Rate | 19.9% | 18.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 55.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.2% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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