Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -26.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +15 | 171 | Won |
| Massey | ARK -25.2 (-10.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.5 (+24.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -22.9 (-7.9) | 148.7 (+22.3) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -21.8 (-6.8) | 146.5 (+24.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -19.1 (-4.1) | 148.3 (+22.7) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -23.7 (-8.7) | 150.1 (+20.9) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 23, 2024 | ARK 79 – 67 LR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | LR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 9-19 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 3-11 |
| Home | 17-1 | 6-7 |
| Away | 5-4 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 64.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 75.4 |
| Massey | 8.8 (#43) | -10.6 (#330) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.03 (#14) | -0.75 (#244) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.45 (#14) | -1.40 (#258) |
| RPI | 0.622 (#27) | 0.456 (#249) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | LR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 28.8% | 23.0% |
| REB / G | 41.6 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.48 | 0.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 45.0% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 22.6% |
| ORB% | 32.8% | 22.6% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 27.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 56.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.2% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 81.4% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.2% | 15.8% |
Game Analysis
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