Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -20.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | ARK -6000 LR +1800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +12 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | ARK -11.7 (+0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.3 (+16.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -11.9 (+0.1) | 135.9 (+10.1) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -11.9 (+0.1) | 134.0 (+12.0) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -10.6 (+1.4) | 134.6 (+11.4) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -10.0 (+2.0) | 135.7 (+10.3) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 4, 2021 | ARK 93 – 78 LR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | LR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-14 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 12-8 |
| Home | 13-4 | 9-5 |
| Away | 4-6 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.8 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.4 | 67.7 |
| Massey | 8.4 (#60) | 3.1 (#120) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.42 (#76) | 0.55 (#150) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.50 (#58) | 0.35 (#171) |
| RPI | 0.579 (#72) | 0.517 (#148) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | LR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.3% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 40.3% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.5% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 21.9% |
| ORB% | 24.8% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 19.7% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 45.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.8% | 22.3% |
| DRB% | 74.5% | 58.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.7% | 33.8% |
Game Analysis
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