Betting Lines
| Spread | NKU -4.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PFW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PFW +14 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | NKU -0.1 (+14.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.7 (-14.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NKU -2.3 (+16.3) | 137.5 (-9.5) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NKU -0.2 (+14.2) | 142.2 (-14.2) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NKU -0.7 (+14.7) | 143.0 (-15.0) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NKU -1.3 (+15.3) | 140.8 (-12.8) | 44% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | NKU 87 – 71 PFW |
| Dec 6, 2025 | PFW 79 – 77 NKU |
| Feb 28, 2025 | NKU 79 – 74 PFW |
| Jan 1, 2025 | NKU 69 – 68 PFW |
| Jan 26, 2024 | PFW 63 – 58 NKU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PFW | NKU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 15-6 | 14-6 |
| Home | 14-2 | 12-4 |
| Away | 6-7 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.6 | 68.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 65.8 |
| Massey | -9.9 (#328) | -3.9 (#249) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.55 (#290) | -1.39 (#276) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.94 (#323) | -1.60 (#269) |
| RPI | 0.389 (#320) | 0.464 (#230) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PFW | NKU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 37.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 30.5 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 15.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 44.6% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 27.2% | 37.3% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 17.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.8% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.6% | 21.2% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 64.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 14.6% |
Game Analysis
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