Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -23.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +67 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | HOU -25.4 (+41.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.6 (+15.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -19.9 (+47.1) | 144.4 (+10.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -20.5 (+46.5) | 141.3 (+13.7) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -23.7 (+43.3) | 140.6 (+14.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -25.0 (+42.0) | 140.6 (+14.4) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOU | BRY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-6 | 22-10 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 16-2 |
| Home | 16-1 | 14-1 |
| Away | 7-3 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 9-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 58.8 | 74.0 |
| Massey | 15.9 (#11) | -3.6 (#241) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.07 (#47) | -0.88 (#254) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.53 (#33) | -1.05 (#245) |
| RPI | 0.625 (#26) | 0.419 (#287) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOU | BRY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 38.8% |
| 3PT% | 38.8% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.47 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.7% | 46.2% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 36.0% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 17.5% | 18.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.1% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.4% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 75.7% | 64.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 18.0% |
Game Analysis
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