Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +13 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | MSU -15.6 (-2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.1 (+8.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -11.9 (+1.1) | 142.7 (+6.3) | 85% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | MSU -10.3 (+2.7) | 145.6 (+3.4) | 82% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | MSU -12.7 (+0.3) | 142.7 (+6.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -12.7 (+0.3) | 143.0 (+6.0) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 16, 2025 | MSU 92 – 69 TOL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 17-3 |
| Home | 12-3 | 13-2 |
| Away | 5-6 | 9-5 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 79.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 69.6 |
| Massey | 13.0 (#24) | 3.2 (#114) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.33 (#30) | 2.20 (#39) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.76 (#27) | 2.16 (#69) |
| RPI | 0.680 (#9) | 0.595 (#55) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 41.1 | 40.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 22.6% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 34.2% | 35.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.1% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 14.5% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 74.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.6% | 13.0% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.