Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -23.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | MSU -6500 TOL +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +23 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | MSU -21.5 (+1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.8 (+14.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -18.5 (+4.5) | 139.5 (+21.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -21.7 (+1.3) | 140.8 (+20.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -20.8 (+2.2) | 139.9 (+21.1) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -19.4 (+3.6) | 139.4 (+21.6) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 4, 2021 | MSU 81 – 68 TOL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 11-7 |
| Home | 15-2 | 11-4 |
| Away | 6-4 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 79.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 77.4 |
| Massey | 18.1 (#16) | 1.1 (#156) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.12 (#9) | 0.11 (#170) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.42 (#9) | 0.39 (#153) |
| RPI | 0.692 (#4) | 0.501 (#172) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 47.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 41.6 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 13.9 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.63 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 40.1% | 32.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.0% | 57.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 75.9% | 66.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 16.4% |
Game Analysis
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