Betting Lines
| Spread | MEM -2.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MISS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MISS +4 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | MEM -2.7 (+6.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.4 (-9.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 25% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MEM -1.5 (+5.5) | 140.4 (-10.4) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MISS -0.0 (+4.0) | 141.0 (-11.0) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MEM -1.2 (+5.2) | 141.5 (-11.5) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MISS -1.2 (+2.8) | 142.9 (-12.9) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 12, 2025 | MISS 83 – 77 MEM |
| Dec 28, 2024 | MEM 87 – 70 MISS |
| Dec 2, 2023 | MISS 80 – 77 MEM |
| Dec 4, 2022 | MEM 68 – 57 MISS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MISS | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 13-5 |
| Home | 10-8 | 13-2 |
| Away | 2-7 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.1 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 68.3 |
| Massey | 1.6 (#143) | 10.2 (#31) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.51 (#231) | 1.74 (#62) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.79 (#231) | 3.69 (#29) |
| RPI | 0.438 (#269) | 0.590 (#61) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MISS | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 47.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 40.9 | 40.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 13.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 25.2% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 38.7% |
| FT Rate | 16.5% | 29.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.9% | 41.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 23.0% |
| DRB% | 77.3% | 65.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 27.2% |
Game Analysis
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