Betting Lines
| Spread | MEM -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | MISS -111 MEM -111 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MISS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MISS +3 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | MEM -0.9 (+3.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.3 (+20.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MISS -1.3 (+1.7) | 141.1 (+15.9) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MISS -2.8 (+0.2) | 138.5 (+18.5) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MISS -2.1 (+0.9) | 138.0 (+19.0) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MISS -2.2 (+0.8) | 139.4 (+17.6) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 12, 2025 | MISS 83 – 77 MEM |
| Dec 28, 2024 | MEM 87 – 70 MISS |
| Dec 4, 2022 | MEM 68 – 57 MISS |
| Dec 4, 2021 | MISS 67 – 63 MEM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MISS | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 22-10 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 11-7 |
| Home | 14-4 | 13-2 |
| Away | 4-7 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 80.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.9 | 75.8 |
| Massey | -0.0 (#170) | 7.1 (#66) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.04 (#16) | 2.11 (#40) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.56 (#29) | 2.86 (#48) |
| RPI | 0.609 (#46) | 0.656 (#19) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MISS | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 37.0% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.67 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.1% | 46.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 67.4% | 65.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.9% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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