Betting Lines
| Spread | MEM -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | MEM -125 MISS +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MEM +17 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | MEM -1.7 (+15.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.8 (+1.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MEM -2.4 (+14.6) | 144.5 (+12.5) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MEM -2.7 (+14.3) | 147.0 (+10.0) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MEM -2.7 (+14.3) | 145.9 (+11.1) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MEM -2.7 (+14.3) | 146.7 (+10.3) | 39% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 12, 2025 | MISS 83 – 77 MEM |
| Dec 2, 2023 | MISS 80 – 77 MEM |
| Dec 4, 2022 | MEM 68 – 57 MISS |
| Dec 4, 2021 | MISS 67 – 63 MEM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MEM | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-6 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 10-8 |
| Home | 13-2 | 13-3 |
| Away | 11-2 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.9 | 77.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.4 | 71.7 |
| Massey | 11.5 (#47) | 14.0 (#31) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.27 (#12) | 2.98 (#18) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.87 (#22) | 4.78 (#12) |
| RPI | 0.707 (#2) | 0.584 (#50) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MEM | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 40.5% | 36.3% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 54.0% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 12.7% |
| ORB% | 32.8% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 34.0% | 26.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 24.1% |
| DRB% | 66.0% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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