Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -17.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 124.0 Under |
| Money | DAY -1700 NIU +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAY +38 | 120 | Won |
| Massey | DAY -18.9 (+19.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 118.5 (+1.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -13.2 (+24.8) | 132.2 (-12.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -17.6 (+20.4) | 128.9 (-8.9) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -16.1 (+21.9) | 131.2 (-11.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -15.1 (+22.9) | 131.2 (-11.2) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAY | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 9-21 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 6-14 |
| Home | 13-4 | 3-8 |
| Away | 7-6 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 64.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.2 | 71.5 |
| Massey | 3.1 (#118) | -9.9 (#327) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.36 (#151) | -0.85 (#252) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.15 (#193) | -1.23 (#254) |
| RPI | 0.496 (#186) | 0.442 (#266) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAY | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.9% | 36.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 0.54 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 43.1% |
| TOV% | 20.7% | 24.4% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 24.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 46.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 21.2% |
| DRB% | 74.7% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.0% | 29.9% |
Game Analysis
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