Betting Lines
| Spread | SJSU -6.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJSU +25 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | SJSU -15.7 (+9.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.5 (-15.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJSU -8.7 (+16.3) | 138.6 (-11.6) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJSU -11.4 (+13.6) | 142.4 (-15.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SJSU -13.0 (+12.0) | 141.2 (-14.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJSU -11.8 (+13.2) | 140.2 (-13.2) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJSU | UND |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-23 | 6-25 |
| Conference | 1-17 | 2-16 |
| Home | 7-9 | 4-11 |
| Away | 1-13 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L4 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.5 | 68.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.3 | 80.1 |
| Massey | -3.8 (#244) | -13.6 (#347) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.79 (#114) | -1.78 (#311) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.80 (#128) | -3.68 (#330) |
| RPI | 0.557 (#92) | 0.393 (#317) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJSU | UND |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 39.0% |
| 3PT% | 40.9% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 45.7% |
| TOV% | 21.6% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 25.4% | 28.2% |
| FT Rate | 14.5% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 57.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 76.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.6% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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