Betting Lines
| Spread | TULN -12.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TULN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TULN +21 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | TULN -2.6 (+18.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.4 (+15.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TULN -2.8 (+18.2) | 140.3 (+8.7) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TULN -3.1 (+17.9) | 137.8 (+11.2) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TULN -3.2 (+17.8) | 137.2 (+11.8) | 59% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TULN -4.6 (+16.4) | 138.0 (+11.0) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 12, 2024 | TULN 84 – 51 ALCN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TULN | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-15 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 14-4 |
| Home | 9-4 | 6-3 |
| Away | 3-8 | 9-13 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.1 | 66.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 71.1 |
| Massey | -1.8 (#215) | 1.5 (#144) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.52 (#287) | -0.78 (#248) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.24 (#289) | -0.94 (#243) |
| RPI | 0.400 (#310) | 0.497 (#184) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TULN | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 38.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 29.7% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 42.1% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 24.0% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 17.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.7% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 28.3% |
Game Analysis
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