Trouble's gonna come to you "Your Time is Gonna Come" - Led Zeppelin
Avron B. Fogelman Arena in the Devlin Fieldhouse · December 4, 2021
Betting Lines
Spread TULN -12.0 Home covered
O/U 130.0 Over
Model Predictions
Spread Total TULN win
Actual TULN +21 149 Won
Massey TULN -2.6 (+18.4)
Massey Totals 133.4 (+15.6)
Bradley-Terry 60%
Weighted B-T 51%
Baseline Plus ML TULN -2.8 (+18.2) 140.3 (+8.7) 64%
Baseline ML TULN -3.1 (+17.9) 137.8 (+11.2) 65%
Baseline Tuned ML TULN -3.2 (+17.8) 137.2 (+11.8) 59%
Efficiency Plus ML TULN -4.6 (+16.4) 138.0 (+11.0) 74%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 12, 2024 TULN 8451 ALCN

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings TULN ALCN
Overall 14-15 17-17
Conference 10-8 14-4
Home 9-4 6-3
Away 3-8 9-13
Neutral 2-3 2-1
Last 5 1-4 1-4
Streak L1 L2
Avg Pts For 73.1 66.5
Avg Pts Against 71.7 71.1
Massey -1.8 (#215) 1.5 (#144)
Bradley-Terry -1.52 (#287) -0.78 (#248)
W. Bradley-Terry -2.24 (#289) -0.94 (#243)
RPI 0.400 (#310) 0.497 (#184)
Shooting & Four Factors TULN ALCN
FG% 43.0% 38.4%
3PT% 34.0% 29.7%
REB / G 33.4 34.8
OREB / G 8.4 11.2
AST / TO 0.81 0.76
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 49.1% 42.1%
TOV% 17.7% 19.0%
ORB% 24.0% 29.4%
FT Rate 24.1% 17.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.5% 50.9%
Opp TOV% 21.7% 18.5%
DRB% 67.6% 73.6%
Opp FT Rate 20.4% 28.3%

Game Analysis

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