We're only making plans for Nigel. "Making Plans for Nigel" - XTC
Avron B. Fogelman Arena in the Devlin Fieldhouse · November 12, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread TULN -21.5 Home covered
O/U 154.5 Under
Money TULN -4000 / ALCN +1300
Model Predictions
Spread Total TULN win
Actual TULN +33 135 Won
Massey TULN -26.5 (+6.5)
Massey Totals 143.0 (-8.0)
Bradley-Terry 95%
Weighted B-T 98%
Baseline Plus ML TULN -23.8 (+9.2) 140.2 (-5.2) 90%
Baseline ML TULN -24.5 (+8.5) 143.2 (-8.2) 91%
Baseline Tuned ML TULN -21.0 (+12.0) 141.9 (-6.9) 90%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 4, 2021 TULN 8564 ALCN

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings TULN ALCN
Overall 19-15 11-21
Conference 12-6 11-7
Home 14-3 6-3
Away 4-7 5-17
Neutral 1-5 0-1
Last 5 1-0 0-2
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 73.7 65.3
Avg Pts Against 71.7 72.4
Massey -1.7 (#210) -17.1 (#356)
Bradley-Terry 0.42 (#152) -0.65 (#253)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.55 (#148) -0.93 (#258)
RPI 0.500 (#106) 0.562 (#84)
Shooting & Four Factors TULN ALCN
FG% 46.7% 32.7%
3PT% 40.0% 31.2%
REB / G 41.0 28.5
OREB / G 10.0 12.0
AST / TO 1.18 0.47
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 55.0% 37.3%
TOV% 15.0% 25.1%
ORB% 25.0% 30.0%
FT Rate 23.3% 20.9%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 38.6% 65.5%
Opp TOV% 23.1% 13.9%
DRB% 64.6% 50.8%
Opp FT Rate 19.7% 24.8%

Game Analysis

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