Betting Lines
| Spread | L-MD -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 126.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | L-MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | L-MD +6 | 116 | Won |
| Massey | L-MD -12.2 (-6.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.5 (-11.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | L-MD -8.3 (-2.3) | 131.9 (-15.9) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | L-MD -8.2 (-2.2) | 134.0 (-18.0) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | L-MD -8.1 (-2.1) | 133.9 (-17.9) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | L-MD -9.1 (-3.1) | 134.2 (-18.2) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 13, 2025 | MSM 81 – 73 L-MD |
| Dec 15, 2024 | L-MD 77 – 69 MSM |
| Dec 9, 2023 | MSM 77 – 64 L-MD |
| Dec 11, 2022 | MSM 51 – 34 L-MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | L-MD | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-16 | 14-16 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 9-9 |
| Home | 10-3 | 8-7 |
| Away | 3-12 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.0 | 64.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.5 | 65.4 |
| Massey | -2.4 (#227) | -8.7 (#318) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.19 (#195) | -0.72 (#242) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.47 (#214) | -1.46 (#261) |
| RPI | 0.441 (#267) | 0.466 (#226) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | L-MD | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 38.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.3% | 29.2% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 31.1 |
| OREB / G | 7.7 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 0.59 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.9% | 43.3% |
| TOV% | 21.9% | 24.6% |
| ORB% | 20.9% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 28.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 54.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.0% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 66.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.5% | 18.0% |
Game Analysis
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