Betting Lines
| Spread | MSM -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.0 Over |
| Money | L-MD +100 MSM -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | L-MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSM +13 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | L-MD -1.8 (-14.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.5 (+2.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSM -0.2 (-12.8) | 141.5 (-0.5) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | L-MD -1.9 (-14.9) | 140.4 (+0.6) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | L-MD -1.6 (-14.6) | 140.3 (+0.7) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | L-MD -1.6 (-14.6) | 141.4 (-0.4) | 53% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 13, 2025 | MSM 81 – 73 L-MD |
| Dec 15, 2024 | L-MD 77 – 69 MSM |
| Dec 11, 2022 | MSM 51 – 34 L-MD |
| Dec 4, 2021 | L-MD 61 – 55 MSM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | L-MD | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 9-11 |
| Home | 2-11 | 8-5 |
| Away | 5-13 | 5-13 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.2 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 71.8 |
| Massey | -7.8 (#309) | -4.1 (#248) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.47 (#334) | -2.62 (#341) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.87 (#343) | -3.26 (#326) |
| RPI | 0.380 (#336) | 0.369 (#343) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | L-MD | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 28.8% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 21.3% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 35.5% |
| FT Rate | 15.9% | 18.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 21.6% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 26.1% |
Game Analysis
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