We are not monsters, we're moral people / And yet we have the strength to do this. "Nemesis" - Shriekback
Reitz Arena · December 9, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread MSM -1.5 Away covered
O/U 133.0 Over
Money L-MD +100 / MSM -120
Model Predictions
Spread Total L-MD win
Actual MSM +13 141 Lost
Massey L-MD -1.8 (-14.8)
Massey Totals 138.5 (+2.5)
Bradley-Terry 80%
Weighted B-T 70%
Efficiency Plus ML MSM -0.2 (-12.8) 141.5 (-0.5) 41%
Baseline Tuned ML L-MD -1.9 (-14.9) 140.4 (+0.6) 54%
Baseline ML L-MD -1.6 (-14.6) 140.3 (+0.7) 53%
Baseline Plus ML L-MD -1.6 (-14.6) 141.4 (-0.4) 53%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 13, 2025 MSM 8173 L-MD
Dec 15, 2024 L-MD 7769 MSM
Dec 11, 2022 MSM 5134 L-MD
Dec 4, 2021 L-MD 6155 MSM

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings L-MD MSM
Overall 7-25 13-19
Conference 5-13 9-11
Home 2-11 8-5
Away 5-13 5-13
Neutral 0-1 0-1
Last 5 0-5 1-4
Streak L1 L2
Avg Pts For 63.2 72.7
Avg Pts Against 72.4 71.8
Massey -7.8 (#309) -4.1 (#248)
Bradley-Terry -2.47 (#334) -2.62 (#341)
W. Bradley-Terry -3.87 (#343) -3.26 (#326)
RPI 0.380 (#336) 0.369 (#343)
Shooting & Four Factors L-MD MSM
FG% 41.7% 44.0%
3PT% 32.1% 28.8%
REB / G 35.9 36.6
OREB / G 10.2 13.0
AST / TO 1.00 0.89
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 48.1% 48.5%
TOV% 20.6% 21.3%
ORB% 27.4% 35.5%
FT Rate 15.9% 18.0%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 50.6% 48.6%
Opp TOV% 16.9% 21.6%
DRB% 68.8% 68.7%
Opp FT Rate 20.4% 26.1%

Game Analysis

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