Betting Lines
| Spread | MSM -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | MSM -165 L-MD +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | L-MD +8 | 146 | Lost |
| Massey | MSM -6.6 (-14.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.4 (+2.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSM -5.9 (-13.9) | 140.6 (+5.4) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSM -6.3 (-14.3) | 142.3 (+3.7) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MSM -6.4 (-14.4) | 142.0 (+4.0) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSM -6.5 (-14.5) | 142.0 (+4.0) | 72% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 13, 2025 | MSM 81 – 73 L-MD |
| Dec 9, 2023 | MSM 77 – 64 L-MD |
| Dec 11, 2022 | MSM 51 – 34 L-MD |
| Dec 4, 2021 | L-MD 61 – 55 MSM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSM | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 12-19 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 6-12 |
| Home | 10-4 | 7-7 |
| Away | 9-8 | 5-12 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.3 | 68.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 72.1 |
| Massey | -4.3 (#247) | -6.6 (#284) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.81 (#113) | -1.18 (#275) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.52 (#144) | -1.70 (#274) |
| RPI | 0.561 (#79) | 0.439 (#279) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSM | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 29.1% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 32.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.9% | 17.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.0% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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