Betting Lines
| Spread | MSM -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | MSM -188 L-MD +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSM +17 | 85 | Won |
| Massey | MSM -13.1 (+3.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.5 (-48.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSM -8.8 (+8.2) | 132.9 (-47.9) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSM -9.6 (+7.4) | 136.1 (-51.1) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSM -9.6 (+7.4) | 136.0 (-51.0) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSM -9.5 (+7.5) | 133.0 (-48.0) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 13, 2025 | MSM 81 – 73 L-MD |
| Dec 15, 2024 | L-MD 77 – 69 MSM |
| Dec 9, 2023 | MSM 77 – 64 L-MD |
| Dec 4, 2021 | L-MD 61 – 55 MSM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSM | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 7-11 |
| Home | 5-9 | 9-6 |
| Away | 7-10 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.8 | 65.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 71.8 |
| Massey | -0.1 (#183) | -7.9 (#305) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.24 (#199) | -1.16 (#279) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.27 (#198) | -1.68 (#284) |
| RPI | 0.489 (#199) | 0.421 (#294) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSM | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 37.2% | 37.9% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 29.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.2% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 20.7% | 23.0% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 24.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 56.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 22.1% |
| DRB% | 67.4% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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