Betting Lines
| Spread | MSM -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | L-MD +124 MSM -148 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | L-MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSM +8 | 154 | Lost |
| Massey | L-MD -4.4 (-12.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.7 (+1.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | L-MD -1.7 (-9.7) | 144.2 (+9.8) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | L-MD -3.5 (-11.5) | 145.5 (+8.5) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | L-MD -3.5 (-11.5) | 147.3 (+6.7) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | L-MD -3.8 (-11.8) | 145.8 (+8.2) | 70% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 15, 2024 | L-MD 77 – 69 MSM |
| Dec 9, 2023 | MSM 77 – 64 L-MD |
| Dec 11, 2022 | MSM 51 – 34 L-MD |
| Dec 4, 2021 | L-MD 61 – 55 MSM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | L-MD | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 11-9 |
| Home | 8-6 | 8-5 |
| Away | 3-13 | 7-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.5 | 71.0 |
| Massey | -12.7 (#337) | -12.4 (#335) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.55 (#336) | -2.68 (#339) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.56 (#331) | -3.96 (#341) |
| RPI | 0.337 (#357) | 0.395 (#325) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | L-MD | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 29.1% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 31.2 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 23.3% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 26.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.5% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 13.5% |
| DRB% | 65.1% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 30.8% |
Game Analysis
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