Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SAC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTST +2 | 134 | Lost |
| Massey | MTST -8.2 (+6.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.2 (-9.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -8.1 (+6.1) | 140.1 (-6.1) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTST -6.1 (+4.1) | 142.7 (-8.7) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -7.0 (+5.0) | 142.7 (-8.7) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTST -6.4 (+4.4) | 143.9 (-9.9) | 26% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | MTST 82 – 61 SAC |
| Jan 30, 2026 | SAC 83 – 80 MTST |
| Mar 1, 2025 | MTST 87 – 60 SAC |
| Jan 31, 2025 | MTST 70 – 58 SAC |
| Mar 13, 2024 | MTST 74 – 71 SAC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SAC | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-18 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 16-4 |
| Home | 6-8 | 13-1 |
| Away | 4-9 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.5 | 75.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 69.7 |
| Massey | -10.5 (#329) | 3.5 (#107) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.86 (#253) | 0.26 (#166) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.90 (#239) | 0.13 (#174) |
| RPI | 0.511 (#155) | 0.521 (#142) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SAC | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.6% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.3% | 40.0% |
| REB / G | 31.2 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.70 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.4% | 55.1% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 20.1% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.3% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 76.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.2% | 29.6% |
Game Analysis
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