Betting Lines
| Spread | WCU -1.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UPST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WCU +5 | 151 | Lost |
| Massey | UPST -3.4 (-8.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.6 (+5.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 24% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 12% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UPST -0.4 (-5.4) | 148.6 (+2.4) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UPST -2.0 (-7.0) | 145.5 (+5.5) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UPST -2.5 (-7.5) | 146.9 (+4.1) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UPST -2.1 (-7.1) | 147.1 (+3.9) | 59% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 6, 2025 | UPST 78 – 67 WCU |
| Dec 7, 2024 | UPST 74 – 68 WCU |
| Dec 16, 2023 | WCU 70 – 53 UPST |
| Dec 3, 2022 | UPST 79 – 64 WCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UPST | WCU |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Massey | -7.4 (#299) | -4.9 (#262) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.36 (#330) | -0.05 (#185) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.60 (#329) | -0.28 (#200) |
| RPI | 0.364 (#333) | 0.492 (#196) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UPST | WCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 39.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.70 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 23.3% | 22.8% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 19.9% | 19.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 14.2% |
| DRB% | 61.9% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.9% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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