Betting Lines
| Spread | UPST -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | UPST -142 WCU +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UPST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UPST +11 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | UPST -11.7 (-0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.1 (-7.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UPST -7.9 (+3.1) | 147.6 (-2.6) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UPST -8.7 (+2.3) | 145.5 (-0.5) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UPST -8.8 (+2.2) | 146.4 (-1.4) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UPST -8.9 (+2.1) | 145.3 (-0.3) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 7, 2024 | UPST 74 – 68 WCU |
| Dec 16, 2023 | WCU 70 – 53 UPST |
| Dec 3, 2022 | UPST 79 – 64 WCU |
| Dec 4, 2021 | WCU 78 – 73 UPST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UPST | WCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 15-16 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 10-8 |
| Home | 10-5 | 10-3 |
| Away | 3-13 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.0 | 76.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.7 | 79.0 |
| Massey | -2.1 (#197) | -8.8 (#299) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.10 (#187) | -0.35 (#208) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.05 (#234) | -0.34 (#191) |
| RPI | 0.498 (#185) | 0.499 (#184) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UPST | WCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 28.1% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 46.9% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 22.4% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 17.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 56.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 65.0% | 73.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.6% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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