In North Carolina way back in the hills, there lived my pappy and he had him a still. "White Lightning" - The Big Bopper
G.B. Hodge Center · December 6, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread UPST -2.5 Home covered
O/U 149.5 Under
Money UPST -142 / WCU +120
Model Predictions
Spread Total UPST win
Actual UPST +11 145 Won
Massey UPST -11.7 (-0.7)
Massey Totals 152.1 (-7.1)
Bradley-Terry 79%
Weighted B-T 63%
Efficiency Plus ML UPST -7.9 (+3.1) 147.6 (-2.6) 78%
Baseline Tuned ML UPST -8.7 (+2.3) 145.5 (-0.5) 80%
Baseline ML UPST -8.8 (+2.2) 146.4 (-1.4) 80%
Baseline Plus ML UPST -8.9 (+2.1) 145.3 (-0.3) 80%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 7, 2024 UPST 7468 WCU
Dec 16, 2023 WCU 7053 UPST
Dec 3, 2022 UPST 7964 WCU
Dec 4, 2021 WCU 7873 UPST

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UPST WCU
Overall 13-19 15-16
Conference 5-11 10-8
Home 10-5 10-3
Away 3-13 4-12
Neutral 0-1 1-1
Last 5 2-3 2-3
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 71.0 76.3
Avg Pts Against 75.7 79.0
Massey -2.1 (#197) -8.8 (#299)
Bradley-Terry -0.10 (#187) -0.35 (#208)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.05 (#234) -0.34 (#191)
RPI 0.498 (#185) 0.499 (#184)
Shooting & Four Factors UPST WCU
FG% 42.9% 41.0%
3PT% 30.9% 28.1%
REB / G 35.8 37.8
OREB / G 10.9 11.5
AST / TO 0.88 0.73
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 48.7% 46.9%
TOV% 18.1% 22.4%
ORB% 28.2% 30.0%
FT Rate 24.6% 17.8%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.5% 56.7%
Opp TOV% 16.6% 16.0%
DRB% 65.0% 73.5%
Opp FT Rate 26.6% 24.0%

Game Analysis

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