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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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22–6 on winners spread MAE 9.7 28 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Drexel	+12.4	139.1	87%	65–86	✓
Sacred Heart @ Lafayette	+8.1	139.6	77%	74–67	✗
Long Island University @ Towson	+17.4	138.5	94%	63–72	✓
Delaware @ Delaware State	-9.9	156.2	18%	59–48	✓
Missouri @ Liberty	+10.9	121.2	84%	45–66	✓
Wright State @ Purdue Fort Wayne	+9.0	151.7	79%	86–73	✗
Northern Kentucky @ Cleveland State	+5.5	131.5	69%	58–72	✓
Detroit Mercy @ IU Indianapolis	-2.2	123.7	42%	69–45	✓
Montana State @ Northern Colorado	+6.9	148.4	74%	75–77	✓
Oral Roberts @ TCU	+14.9	148.5	91%	63–71	✓
Lamar @ Mississippi State	+26.1	142.2	99%	60–75	✓
Jacksonville @ Charleston Southern	-9.4	129.6	20%	67–56	✓
Youngstown State @ Milwaukee	-1.9	131.4	43%	70–68	✓
Robert Morris @ Green Bay	+6.7	140.3	73%	58–70	✓
Oakland @ UIC	-1.9	132.8	43%	81–77	✓
Lipscomb @ Belmont	+9.8	157.9	81%	65–94	✓
Northern Arizona @ Weber State	+19.4	136.8	96%	44–67	✓
Portland State @ Idaho State	+3.0	121.0	61%	63–55	✗
Southern Utah @ Eastern Washington	+10.9	157.4	84%	89–76	✗
UTSA @ Grand Canyon	+22.0	131.2	98%	71–74	✓
Saint Mary's @ Utah State	+8.7	133.8	79%	60–58	✗
Valparaiso @ Drake	+16.4	135.0	93%	66–73	✓
Denver @ Wyoming	+25.7	137.6	99%	64–77	✓
Montana @ Sacramento State	+7.1	137.5	74%	65–58	✗
Cal Poly @ California Baptist	+15.2	131.5	92%	55–64	✓
Eastern Michigan @ UC San Diego	+11.2	141.3	85%	74–83	✓
Oregon State @ California	+7.9	133.2	76%	61–73	✓
Notre Dame @ Boston College	+7.3	132.0	75%	57–73	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.