Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCO -3.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCO +2 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | UNCO -7.1 (-5.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.3 (+3.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCO -3.2 (-1.2) | 143.2 (+8.8) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCO -3.7 (-1.7) | 146.9 (+5.1) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCO -3.7 (-1.7) | 147.3 (+4.7) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCO -4.3 (-2.3) | 145.0 (+7.0) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 20, 2026 | MTST 73 – 68 UNCO |
| Jan 2, 2026 | MTST 89 – 75 UNCO |
| Mar 12, 2025 | UNCO 72 – 45 MTST |
| Feb 9, 2025 | UNCO 73 – 66 MTST |
| Jan 10, 2025 | UNCO 83 – 82 MTST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCO | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-16 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 16-4 |
| Home | 9-4 | 13-1 |
| Away | 8-9 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.1 | 75.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.0 | 69.7 |
| Massey | 4.1 (#101) | 3.0 (#124) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.74 (#121) | 0.45 (#144) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.51 (#99) | 0.24 (#169) |
| RPI | 0.555 (#93) | 0.546 (#109) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCO | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 47.6% |
| 3PT% | 37.3% | 39.7% |
| REB / G | 30.5 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 7.3 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.3% | 56.2% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 22.4% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 16.7% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 53.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 74.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 31.2% |
Game Analysis
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