Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +2 | 118 | Lost |
| Massey | USU -9.2 (-11.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.2 (-16.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -7.8 (-9.8) | 137.4 (-19.4) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USU -7.7 (-9.7) | 137.0 (-19.0) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -8.4 (-10.4) | 137.0 (-19.0) | 78% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -7.1 (-9.1) | 133.4 (-15.4) | 78% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 23, 2024 | USU 75 – 68 SMC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USU | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 12-3 |
| Home | 9-7 | 16-0 |
| Away | 4-7 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.8 | 69.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.0 | 61.3 |
| Massey | 8.8 (#40) | 5.7 (#81) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.21 (#40) | 1.89 (#57) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.44 (#36) | 2.70 (#55) |
| RPI | 0.615 (#38) | 0.563 (#82) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USU | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 37.7% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.51 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.8% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 25.6% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 17.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.0% | 45.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 74.9% | 81.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.5% | 17.5% |
Game Analysis
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