Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | SMC -225 USU +190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +7 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | SMC -1.1 (-8.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.2 (-4.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -2.2 (-9.2) | 141.8 (+1.2) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -3.0 (-10.0) | 141.8 (+1.2) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -2.6 (-9.6) | 141.5 (+1.5) | 57% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMC -3.3 (-10.3) | 137.5 (+5.5) | 56% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 3, 2021 | SMC 60 – 58 USU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMC | USU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-6 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 15-5 |
| Home | 16-1 | 15-2 |
| Away | 9-1 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.8 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 9.8 (#56) | 13.0 (#38) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.27 (#44) | 2.80 (#22) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.43 (#34) | 4.13 (#14) |
| RPI | 0.632 (#20) | 0.624 (#23) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMC | USU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 41.0 | 39.8 |
| OREB / G | 15.3 | 14.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 1.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 41.7% | 40.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 29.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 22.9% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 18.3% |
Game Analysis
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