Betting Lines
| Spread | GCU -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GCU +3 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | GCU -23.0 (-20.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.1 (+13.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GCU -16.7 (-13.7) | 132.8 (+12.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GCU -16.2 (-13.2) | 137.1 (+7.9) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GCU -18.2 (-15.2) | 135.6 (+9.4) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GCU -17.7 (-14.7) | 135.2 (+9.8) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GCU | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Massey | 5.1 (#86) | -11.9 (#342) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.95 (#53) | -1.00 (#260) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.85 (#49) | -1.17 (#254) |
| RPI | 0.519 (#145) | 0.375 (#325) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GCU | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 36.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 27.8% |
| REB / G | 41.0 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 15.2 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 41.4% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 42.9% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 18.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 76.4% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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