Betting Lines
| Spread | MSST -23.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSST +15 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | MSST -26.1 (-11.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.7 (-7.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSST -22.8 (-7.8) | 141.0 (-6.0) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSST -20.7 (-5.7) | 142.6 (-7.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSST -22.6 (-7.6) | 142.1 (-7.1) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSST -23.0 (-8.0) | 139.4 (-4.4) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSST | LAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 2-27 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 0-18 |
| Home | 14-3 | 2-11 |
| Away | 1-10 | 0-18 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L27 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.5 | 60.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 74.1 |
| Massey | 9.9 (#33) | -10.1 (#330) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.45 (#75) | -3.57 (#352) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.27 (#67) | -4.65 (#341) |
| RPI | 0.581 (#69) | 0.320 (#349) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSST | LAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.8% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 38.0% | 36.3% |
| REB / G | 40.3 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.4% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 36.1% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 16.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.2% | 57.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 76.5% | 65.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.0% | 27.4% |
Game Analysis
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