Betting Lines
| Spread | TOW -11.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | TOW -550 LIU +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOW +9 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | TOW -17.7 (-8.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.4 (-2.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOW -13.3 (-4.3) | 139.3 (-4.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOW -11.2 (-2.2) | 137.7 (-2.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOW -14.6 (-5.6) | 139.4 (-4.4) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOW -13.7 (-4.7) | 139.3 (-4.3) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 3, 2022 | TOW 74 – 64 LIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOW | LIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-9 | 16-14 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 12-6 |
| Home | 12-2 | 12-1 |
| Away | 11-5 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 73.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.4 | 74.3 |
| Massey | 4.1 (#99) | -7.5 (#303) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.23 (#167) | -1.41 (#278) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.59 (#149) | -1.72 (#271) |
| RPI | 0.494 (#187) | 0.414 (#292) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOW | LIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 39.2% |
| 3PT% | 30.3% | 30.1% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 0.67 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 45.8% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 24.1% |
| ORB% | 36.0% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 31.5% | 18.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.0% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 76.7% | 65.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.2% | 27.8% |
Game Analysis
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