Betting Lines
| Spread | BEL -15.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BEL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BEL +29 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | BEL -10.4 (+18.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.5 (+0.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BEL -11.2 (+17.8) | 154.3 (+4.7) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BEL -12.1 (+16.9) | 153.4 (+5.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BEL -8.5 (+20.5) | 155.8 (+3.2) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BEL -8.6 (+20.4) | 153.9 (+5.1) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 20, 2025 | BEL 75 – 68 LIP |
| Nov 13, 2024 | BEL 80 – 79 LIP |
| Dec 7, 2023 | BEL 72 – 71 LIP |
| Nov 15, 2022 | LIP 77 – 75 BEL |
| Dec 13, 2020 | BEL 81 – 71 LIP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BEL | LIP |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Massey | 8.4 (#46) | 4.1 (#100) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.36 (#80) | 1.17 (#93) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.34 (#66) | 1.61 (#92) |
| RPI | 0.604 (#50) | 0.497 (#180) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BEL | LIP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 55.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 50.6% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 3.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 64.3% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 23.6% |
| ORB% | 23.1% | 15.1% |
| FT Rate | 18.2% | 32.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 46.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 14.2% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.8% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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