Taking a bite on a biscuit, the record jumps on a scratch. "If I Didn't Love You" - Squeeze
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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52–15 on winners spread MAE 8.8 67 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Villanova @ Pennsylvania -11.8 149.5 14% 71–56 ✓
Wagner @ Seton Hall +5.3 128.0 68% 63–85 ✓
Dartmouth @ Vermont +6.4 113.5 72% 65–83 ✓
Lehigh @ Yale +15.6 141.0 92% 72–82 ✓
Princeton @ Hofstra +8.0 161.1 77% 77–81 ✓
Georgia Southern @ Morehead State +5.9 125.4 70% 51–59 ✓
UT Martin @ Middle Tennessee +19.9 135.8 97% 61–73 ✓
Stetson @ Florida Atlantic +4.9 138.2 67% 73–83 ✓
Bucknell @ Saint Francis +14.1 160.1 90% 67–93 ✓
Holy Cross @ Central Connecticut +7.7 138.4 76% 67–73 ✓
William & Mary @ Navy +27.0 125.7 99% 56–75 ✓
Norfolk State @ UNC Wilmington +2.7 132.3 60% 74–69 ✗
South Carolina @ Coastal Carolina -3.1 129.1 39% 56–80 ✗
Cincinnati @ Miami (OH) +3.5 142.6 62% 59–58 ✗
Richmond @ Wofford +7.6 152.6 75% 73–64 ✗
La Salle @ Temple +10.7 133.7 84% 57–73 ✓
Boston University @ George Washington -5.0 134.8 32% 56–54 ✓
Chicago State @ Loyola Maryland +13.6 127.7 89% 64–78 ✓
Rhode Island @ Harvard +2.6 146.1 59% 64–57 ✗
St. Francis Brooklyn @ Fordham +13.9 143.4 90% 46–68 ✓
Brown @ UMass Lowell +11.2 128.3 85% 73–63 ✗
Columbia @ UMBC +17.0 153.4 94% 60–98 ✓
Alabama State @ Dayton +9.1 142.4 79% 54–93 ✓
Binghamton @ Saint Joseph's +4.9 142.3 67% 57–79 ✓
Coppin State @ St. Bonaventure +16.1 133.2 93% 81–93 ✓
Mercer @ Kennesaw State +6.6 138.2 73% 73–71 ✗
Florida Gulf Coast @ Florida International +6.0 140.0 71% 61–77 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Evansville -1.7 127.0 44% 54–52 ✓
Iona @ Marist -3.0 140.6 39% 78–71 ✓
Ball State @ Western Illinois +14.5 152.8 91% 80–93 ✓
Bowling Green @ Duquesne +7.4 153.4 75% 78–70 ✗
Marshall @ Akron +3.3 142.5 62% 86–88 ✓
Memphis @ Georgia -8.0 140.1 23% 79–82 ✗
Louisville @ Michigan State +13.0 125.1 88% 64–73 ✓
Nebraska @ NC State +9.6 151.2 81% 100–104 ✓
Virginia Tech @ Maryland -8.9 132.0 21% 62–58 ✓
Texas Southern @ Louisiana Tech +5.8 148.1 70% 60–87 ✓
Hartford @ Winthrop +14.5 165.7 91% 75–82 ✓
East Tennessee State @ UAB +12.6 139.4 87% 56–70 ✓
Washington State @ Arizona State -3.0 149.0 39% 51–29 ✓
Central Arkansas @ Arkansas +30.5 146.5 100% 60–97 ✓
Florida @ Oklahoma +1.3 126.6 55% 67–74 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Iowa State +27.8 141.5 99% 64–83 ✓
UCF @ Auburn +16.1 144.2 93% 68–85 ✓
Southern Miss @ South Alabama +20.1 133.5 97% 55–85 ✓
Wichita State @ Oklahoma State +12.3 130.8 87% 60–51 ✗
UNLV @ SMU +9.8 133.7 81% 64–83 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ UT Rio Grande Valley +5.0 160.7 68% 83–77 ✗
UAlbany @ Kansas State +15.9 127.0 93% 43–71 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Bradley +2.8 139.5 60% 69–71 ✓
Missouri State @ Illinois State -6.0 169.7 29% 74–79 ✗
Indiana State @ Loyola Chicago +20.5 148.3 97% 76–88 ✓
Ohio @ LSU +22.7 138.7 98% 51–66 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Northern Illinois +14.4 116.2 90% 45–55 ✓
Texas Tech @ Providence -1.4 142.9 45% 68–72 ✗
BYU @ Utah Valley -3.5 143.5 37% 65–72 ✗
Mississippi Valley State @ North Alabama +23.3 136.4 98% 58–72 ✓
Little Rock @ Colorado State +24.4 158.8 99% 55–86 ✓
Pacific @ UC Davis +7.7 134.6 76% 57–63 ✓
Wisconsin @ Georgia Tech -4.8 129.9 33% 70–66 ✓
Michigan @ North Carolina +4.6 154.2 66% 51–72 ✓
Miami @ Penn State +13.0 138.4 88% 63–58 ✗
Colorado @ UCLA +17.7 157.0 95% 61–73 ✓
UC Riverside @ Oregon +6.3 124.8 72% 65–71 ✓
San Diego @ Fresno State +4.0 118.8 64% 43–63 ✓
McNeese @ Seattle U +15.6 140.0 92% 62–78 ✓
Utah @ USC +11.3 131.7 85% 73–93 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.