Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -19.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAY +39 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | DAY -9.7 (+29.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.6 (+4.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -12.7 (+26.3) | 143.0 (+4.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -7.0 (+32.0) | 145.0 (+2.0) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -8.3 (+30.7) | 145.5 (+1.5) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -9.0 (+30.0) | 145.6 (+1.4) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAY | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 9-21 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 8-10 |
| Home | 13-4 | 6-6 |
| Away | 7-6 | 3-15 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | W2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.2 | 75.6 |
| Massey | 0.2 (#169) | -3.4 (#242) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.38 (#155) | -1.84 (#311) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.33 (#205) | -2.81 (#312) |
| RPI | 0.514 (#163) | 0.424 (#283) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAY | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.9% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.54 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 22.1% | 25.3% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 74.9% | 65.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.7% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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