I remember one night the kid cut off his right arm in a bid to save a bit of power. "So It Goes" - Nick Lowe
Patrick Gymnasium · December 2, 2021
Betting Lines
Spread UVM -11.5 Home covered
O/U 122.5 Over
Model Predictions
Spread Total UVM win
Actual UVM +18 148 Won
Massey UVM -6.6 (+11.4)
Massey Totals 112.3 (+35.7)
Bradley-Terry 72%
Weighted B-T 86%
Baseline Plus ML UVM -5.7 (+12.3) 127.6 (+20.4) 74%
Baseline ML UVM -5.2 (+12.8) 125.4 (+22.6) 71%
Baseline Tuned ML UVM -5.0 (+13.0) 125.4 (+22.6) 68%
Efficiency Plus ML UVM -4.9 (+13.1) 132.7 (+15.3) 70%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 21, 2024 DART 8454 UVM
Nov 30, 2023 UVM 6453 DART
Dec 7, 2022 UVM 6852 DART

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UVM DART
Overall 28-6 9-16
Conference 17-1 6-8
Home 16-0 5-5
Away 10-4 4-11
Neutral 2-2 0-0
Last 5 3-2 2-1
Streak L1 W2
Avg Pts For 74.6 66.5
Avg Pts Against 61.1 68.0
Massey 3.0 (#121) 2.5 (#129)
Bradley-Terry 0.76 (#128) 1.08 (#94)
W. Bradley-Terry 1.19 (#119) 0.92 (#125)
RPI 0.553 (#103) 0.579 (#73)
Shooting & Four Factors UVM DART
FG% 40.2% 38.5%
3PT% 25.0% 34.4%
REB / G 33.0 32.7
OREB / G 6.1 8.3
AST / TO 1.44 0.97
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 45.9% 47.5%
TOV% 12.7% 18.1%
ORB% 17.9% 21.6%
FT Rate 17.5% 8.8%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 45.6% 46.9%
Opp TOV% 18.3% 23.4%
DRB% 79.7% 64.6%
Opp FT Rate 17.3% 15.2%

Game Analysis

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