Lord Lucan is missing. "Lord Lucan is Missing" - The Dodgems
Patrick Gymnasium · November 30, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread UVM -12.5 Away covered
O/U 134.5 Under
Money UVM -1000 / DART +850
Model Predictions
Spread Total UVM win
Actual UVM +11 117 Won
Massey UVM -23.1 (-12.1)
Massey Totals 127.5 (-10.5)
Bradley-Terry 99%
Weighted B-T 100%
Baseline Plus ML UVM -16.7 (-5.7) 129.4 (-12.4) 89%
Baseline ML UVM -16.3 (-5.3) 133.2 (-16.2) 87%
Baseline Tuned ML UVM -15.0 (-4.0) 133.1 (-16.1) 89%
Efficiency Plus ML UVM -15.8 (-4.8) 133.4 (-16.4) 88%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 21, 2024 DART 8454 UVM
Dec 7, 2022 UVM 6852 DART
Dec 2, 2021 UVM 8365 DART

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UVM DART
Overall 28-7 6-21
Conference 15-1 2-12
Home 16-1 6-7
Away 10-4 0-14
Neutral 2-2 0-0
Last 5 3-2 0-3
Streak L1 W1
Avg Pts For 69.9 60.6
Avg Pts Against 63.8 73.2
Massey 4.6 (#103) -11.9 (#339)
Bradley-Terry 2.04 (#46) -1.27 (#274)
W. Bradley-Terry 3.48 (#37) -1.15 (#248)
RPI 0.664 (#19) 0.450 (#248)
Shooting & Four Factors UVM DART
FG% 44.5% 36.6%
3PT% 35.8% 18.5%
REB / G 34.8 33.0
OREB / G 9.0 9.0
AST / TO 1.28 0.72
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 53.0% 40.2%
TOV% 14.6% 19.4%
ORB% 26.2% 24.1%
FT Rate 17.3% 21.3%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.3% 56.3%
Opp TOV% 14.3% 13.0%
DRB% 75.0% 75.8%
Opp FT Rate 23.6% 18.0%

Game Analysis

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